Will the proposed VAT on digital financial services (M-Pesa) be removed from the final Finance Act 2026?

Market Context: The Finance Bill 2026 has introduced a highly contentious proposal to levy a Value Added Tax (VAT) on digital financial services. If passed, this would directly increase the cost of transactions on mobile money platforms like M-Pesa, which are vital to the daily economic activities of millions of Kenyans. The National Treasury argues that bringing digital financial services into the VAT bracket is essential to meet its ambitious KES 3.5 Trillion revenue target and satisfy fiscal consolidation demands from the IMF. However, the proposal faces immense public pushback and intense parliamentary debate, as critics argue it will disproportionately affect low-income earners and stifle financial inclusion. Traders in this market are predicting whether public and political pressure will be enough to force the government to drop this specific tax before the Bill becomes law. Rules & Oracle: - Oracle: The official publication of the Finance Act 2026 by the Government Printer (Kenya Gazette). - Resolution Rules: This market resolves to 'Yes' if the final, officially gazetted Finance Act 2026 completely removes or explicitly excludes the proposed VAT on digital financial services (meaning the tax is NOT implemented). It resolves to 'No' if the VAT clause is passed and remains in the final Act, even if the rate is reduced or amended (e.g., passed at 10% instead of 16%). The tax must be entirely removed for a 'Yes' resolution. The resolution will occur strictly based on the text of the gazetted Act, which is expected to be published on or before June 30th, 2026.